Despite all the financial knowledge and information headlines over the previous few days, mortgage charges have barely budged since final Friday. That was not what we anticipated this week given the anticipation for the inflation stories that got here out on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Now immediately, a seemingly balmy Retail Sales report (one thing that may usually push charges larger) ended up being no large deal for the bond market that underlies mortgage charges. There’s some rational justification for the paradox, nonetheless. After adjusting for inflation, the retail gross sales classes that talk to discretionary spending advised an ongoing slowdown (one thing that may usually be good for charges).
The underlying bond market really improved after this morning’s knowledge, however not sufficient to trigger a giant transfer in mortgage charges. With that, we’ve got yet one more day the place the typical 30yr mounted fee has modified by solely 0.01 to 0.02%–about as small as day after day motion will get.
The financial calendar will get much less attention-grabbing over the subsequent two weeks. It will not be till the subsequent jobs report in early August that we get our subsequent main flashpoint–at least when it comes to issues that adhere to a schedule. Unexpected headline developments are at all times a possible supply of volatility.
