Total mortgage origination quantity is projected to surpass $2 trillion by the top of the yr for the primary time since 2022, based on a current forecast.
The milestone is pushed by a 48% leap in refinance {dollars} and 12% spike in buy {dollars}, an general 20% improve from final yr, based on iEmergent’s 2025–2027 U.S. Mortgage Origination Forecast.
“Crossing again above $2 trillion in 2025 indicators renewed power in the mortgage market,” iEmergent Chief of (*3*) Mark Watson stated in a press launch Wednesday. “By 2026, decrease charges and moderating dwelling costs ought to assist exercise, although affordability challenges will persist – particularly for first-time patrons.”
The forecast additionally estimated whole origination quantity to succeed in $2.27 trillion subsequent yr, a 13% climb from 2025. The firm expects refinance items to rise 24% as decrease charges enhance exercise and buy items to develop 2.3% to push whole mortgage depend up practically 10% yr over yr.
The 2026 outlook displays the altering financial panorama, Watson stated. As tariff impacts deepen, client confidence falls off and the labor market slows, iEmergent anticipates GDP progress to chill and rates of interest to decrease.
Long-term rates of interest are anticipated to rise barely by the top of the yr however fall once more in 2026 as progress weakens, the forecast stated. That drop ought to carry extra exercise to the market.
Origination quantity is forecasted to marginally improve to $2.32 trillion in 2027, backed by a 3.6% improve in buy items, whereas refinance items are anticipated to dip a bit.
“These nationwide developments inform an vital story, however they do not inform the entire story,” stated Laird Nossuli, CEO of iEmergent. “Every market will expertise the subsequent wave of restoration in a different way.”
Fannie Mae’s most up-to-date origination forecast in late September pegged whole quantity beneath iEmergent’s at $1.85 trillion, whereas its 2026 projection got here in barely larger at $2.32 trillion.
