If any given week of motion within the mortgage price world got here with disclaimer, this one could be: “Warning. An absence of volatility on Monday has no bearing on odds for volatility in the remainder of the week.” More merely put, you are primarily assured to see extra price motion over the following 4 days just because at present noticed none.
Of all the days this week, Monday was the most effective candidate for a ho-hum stage of motion as a result of it was the one day with none main financial information on faucet. Rates are based mostly on bonds, and econ information is a key supply of inspiration for bonds.
While not technically econ information, there have been a number of scheduled occasions at present which will have mattered, however finally did not. These included a number of Treasury auctions in addition to Treasury’s borrowing estimates for the quarter. After accounting for technicalities and timing, this quarter’s borrowing estimates had been solely 4 bln greater than beforehand predicted. When the typical borrowing quantity has been operating round $500bln, that is primarily an accounting adjustment and it is no shock that the speed market did not care.
